SureReal Times

Say what you will about the coronavirus Corona Fires crisis, but I think we can all agree that stuff got real. And quickly.

Up is down, and down is up

Not long ago, if I’d have said that in a few weeks tens or hundreds of millions of Americans including libertarians and hard-core Republicans would be practicing social distancing or subject to government orders to shelter in place, you’d have had reason to laugh at me. Even moreso had I told you that the government would be ordering the closure of whole classes of businesses. And that it’d be dusting off long-dormant statutes giving the federal government compel certain actions/production by private businesses. And that private businesses wouldn’t just listen, but willingly comply.

The week before this blog post was published, one of the most divided Congresses in American history overwhelmingly passed the largest stimulus package in American history. And our representatives and senators put it all together and passed it quickly. Unfathomable.

Just earlier this year, most trusted experts and news sources agreed that the American economy was poised for a great 2020. And that it’s fundamentals were strong. I should know, because only a few months earlier, I acted on that sentiment. D’oh!!!!!

Now, anyone invested in equities has taken a massive beat down to the tune of 35% losses from the peak. Ditto (now or soon), I suspect, those who have invested in rental properties and need the rent checks to keep rolling in. And also owners of businesses that have had to temporarily shutter, that have, or will, permanently folded, or that are just getting (much) less work.

All this within about a month. It is surreal and sure real.

Do the right thing

So, what to do? Well, anyone who professes to know for sure is either a charlatan or misguided. Or both. But I think there are some things worth considering. At least I’m considering them.

First, show genuine concern for, and offer to help, your fellow (wo)man. At the very least, that’s the decent thing to do. You’ll do good by others, and, once the crisis has passed (at a time no one can now know, of course), they’ll remember your good deeds. Likely for a lifetime. Tho you shouldn’t act with the ulterior motive of being repaid in any way, you likewise shouldn’t be surprised if you ultimately are.

Second, be grateful as much as you can. If you’re in good health and the Corona Fires haven’t got you, be grateful. If your friends and family also are COVID-19-free, be grateful. If others you know have not been stricken, be grateful. We’ve probably all seen pictures of what the disease can do. And of hospitals filled to overflowing or worse and without sufficient personnel or tools to effectively handle the onslaught. So it seems to me that if you, your loved ones, and your acquaintances are well, things could be much worse. Much. I hate to say it, but if the worst thing that’s happened to you is a (so far) 35% loss in your net worth and the loss of a job, you’re kiiiinda lucky.

Third, if you’re invested in the market, try not to touch your investments if you don’t have to. I see three scenarios playing out with the Corona Fires (unfortunately, the experts — including modern-day superhero Dr. Anthony Fauci — can’t predict which one will occur), two of which can, I think, be weathered. The third scenario m may not easily be weathered, but it’s so bad that all bets may be off anyway.

In scenario one, we ultimately find that this was a short-lived pandemic, lasting just a few months. Once it and the after-effects have passed, the markets will recalibrate where things are and, eventually, rise again. Investors will want to be positioned to recoup some or all of the losses they’ve suffered, and then some.

In scenario two, COVID-19 turns out to be like the Spanish flu of about 100 years ago. The crisis lasts longer and does far more damage than in scenario one, but, mercifully, passes. Those who can ride out the full storm without touching their investments should, as with scenario one, be rewarded, even if it takes longer for that to happen.

In scenario three, however, COVID-19 turns out to last years and be a disaster on the scale of the bubonic plague or worse, and consequently devastates the whole world. I hate to even bring this scenario up, but it’s best to at least contemplate the worst. If this ends up being what happens, I don’t have much good advice. So maybe plan for scenario one (or, at worst, scenario two) but expect scenario three. Live life (while obeying the authorities’ orders re social distancing and sheltering in place and such), be good to others, and hope for the best. For what it’s worth, given modern science and the drastic measures countries the world over are taking, I and most experts think this scenario is highly unlikely.

We can’t now know how the Corona Fires crisis unfolds and, ultimately, ends. But we can probably agree that to date what we all knew (or thought we knew) as reality has been turned on its head. Let’s make the best of it.